Which assumption moves NPV the most?

Fusion · RGME 467 · Business & Financial Modeling
Assumptions (low, base, high)
AssumptionLowBaseHigh
Base-case NPV 10 years, no terminal value

Example model with invented figures: a diagnostic kit sold in the U.S. Trials run three years, launch is year 4, and share reaches its peak in year 7. Held fixed: 250,000 patients a year, $500 unit cost, $6M a year in fixed costs, 15% of revenue in variable costs. Edit any number.

NPV when each assumption alone moves from low to high

Bars are sorted by width. Blue end: NPV at the assumption's high value; red end: at its low value. The center line is the base case.